When it comes to the U.S. economy and what will happen in various areas of it, there are always many individuals eager to make predictions. However, when a well-respected venture capitalist such as Shervin Pishevar lets loose on a number of economic predictions, people sit up and listen. This happened recently during a 21-hour tweet storm, in which Shervin Pishevar made a number of interesting predictions regarding various facets of the national economy.
Beginning his tweet storm with his thoughts on the U.S. stock market, Shervin Pishevar gave many investors food for thought when he predicted a drop of 6,000 points for stocks in the coming months. Believing volatility in the current bond market will precipitate this drop, he also predicted that for investors looking for a safe haven for their money, gold and other precious metals may be the answer. According to him, those investors who pull money from stocks and invest instead in metals will be rewarded over time.
After his stunning prediction about the stock market, Shervin Pishevar made more fascinating predictions about the companies in Silicon Valley. Predicting their best days are now behind them, he predicted foreign competition from China and many other nations will surpass Silicon Valley companies when it comes to strategic planning, marketing, research and development, and recruiting top IT talent. While these predictions paint a very dark picture for Silicon Valley, he did predict that if these companies choose to become very aggressive in the above-mentioned areas, it may be possible for them to once again be the high-tech leaders worldwide.
And just when many people thought the tweet storm was finished, Shervin Pishevar came back with even more predictions, this time about virtual currency Bitcoin. Like the stock market, he sees a sharp drop in value for the virtual currency, perhaps by up to $5,000. However, while he predicts stocks will take a significant amount of time to rebound from their losses, Shervin Pishevar predicts Bitcoin will rebound much quicker, and in fact grow in value over the coming year, making investors who stay the course quite happy and wealthy.
St. Joe Company, was recently given a valuation of $1 billion – a figure that, according to Sahm Adrangi of Kerrisdale Capital, is off by a considerable margin. Recently, Mr. Adrangi, Chief Investment Officer of Kerrisdale Capital, published a report concerning the valuation – explaining its flaws as well as their position to short the company. Over the course of his career, Sahm Adrangi has consistently made waves by exposing overvalued or fraudulent companies, and in many cases, his research has proved to be correct. According to Mr. Adrangi, St. Joe Company is both, “over-valued and over-hyped,” and Kerrisdale Capital’s research suggests that it is actually worth 40 percent less than advertised.
Sahm Adrangi supported his argument with a variety of tangible factors, including the state of its sub-par real estate assets. Many of these land resources are located in remote areas, and also have swamp-like conditions, making them areas that are unlikely to be developed in the near future. Recently, St. Joe Company has seen a substantial surge, due mostly because of their plan to create a destination and retirement community near Panama City Beach. Although there has been a level of new excitement surrounding the proposed product, ten years have passed since any real development has taken place, and no permits have been filed for its continuation. Competition has also created a market that has become somewhat oversaturated, due to an increased influx of interest from a number of areas.
According to Sahm Adrangi, Issues regarding the Fairholme Fund, which holds 22.7 million shares of St. Joe Company, may make any further progression increasingly difficult. The Securities and Exchange Commission has implemented a number of new regulations that will require Fairholme Fund to dump $10 million shares by December 1st of this year, making the path to success much more difficult. Chairman of the board at St. Joe Company, Bruce Berkowitz, is also the fund manager at Fairholme Fund, which presents a possible conflict of interest that could lead to litigation. He could decide to step down, but this would put a significant strain on the stock value, and there could be an exponential drop as a result.